Kraken report: BTC correlation with the S&P 500 index is growing, and with gold – falling

According to the latest report from the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange, a 31% drop in bitcoin trading volume in June caused the annual volatility of BTC to reach a six-month low.

According to Kraken in its report, June was the most unremarkable month in the bitcoin trading market since February. The lack of activity in the market led to a decrease in trading volume on the exchange to a four-month low of $36.6 billion.

Earlier this month, a decline in trading volume was also reported by cryptocompare analysts. They noted that in June, trading volumes on spot cryptocurrency exchanges of the” highest level ” fell by 36% – to $177 billion, and the volatility of bitcoin fell to the lowest values for the year.

As Kraken notes, in light of the weak market and low volatility, the price of BTC fell by 4.4%, which was the lowest price change since August last year.

As a result of changes in trends that took place earlier this year, the thirty-day correlation of bitcoin with the S&P 500 index became “significantly more positive” and rose to 0.65 at the end of June. At the same time, the thirty-day correlation of BTC with gold fell below the average value for the year and reached a minimum of -0.49.

Interestingly, in early June, CoinMetrics noted a high correlation between the price of gold and bitcoin in recent months. At the same time, according to VanEck, the correlation between assets has increased since March.

Kraken analysts believe that the change in the correlation of bitcoin with gold and the S&P 500 index has made it less like a safe asset and more like a traditional financial asset in the context of a global stock market recovery.

The report notes that market participants should pay more attention to the thirty-day predicted volatility index for the S&P 500 (VIX). If BTC is going to change the long-term macroeconomic downtrend, it needs to rise above $10,500 and trigger an upward price movement.